The Centre for Strategic and Regional Studies (CSRS)
Until recently, the chances of a direct war between Israel and Iran seemed low. Both countries were deterred by fear of one another, particularly because Iran, through its network of proxy groups known as the Axis of Resistance, was able to keep pressure on Israel.
Although a direct war between Turkey and Israel is not yet a reality, rising political, military, and ideological tensions could push both countries closer to open conflict.
An analysis of the European Union’s relations with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan reveals a profound divide between the EU’s normative values and its geopolitical imperatives concerning Afghanistan.
The trilateral meetings between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China were initiated at a time when tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan had reached a peak, and armed conflict within Afghanistan was intensifying.
The visit of Amir Khan Muttaqi to Qatar reflects the broader efforts of the Islamic Emirate to help Afghanistan move beyond its current crisis. Taking place amid international sanctions and ongoing humanitarian challenges, the trip focused on key areas such as political engagement, economic support, and humanitarian aid. Through meetings with Qatari officials, the Islamic Emirate aimed to gain greater international legitimacy while strengthening Qatar’s role as a strategic mediator and partner. In this context, the Emirate seeks to boost economic ties, attract foreign investment, and expand trade relations, although significant challenges remain.
The recent incident in Pahalgam has heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. As a result, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, while Pakistan has delayed the Shimla Agreement.
Saudi Arabia, once a staunch supporter of the Islamic Emirate, severed its ties following global and regional shifts concerning Afghanistan. In alignment with international sentiment at the time, largely opposed to the Islamic Emirate, Riyadh sought to delegitimize the Emirate’s struggle by portraying it as religiously unjustified.
President Trump’s financial policies toward NATO, particularly his demands for European countries to contribute more to defense spending, may have strengthened NATO’s financial resources.
In summary, the closure of the Torkham Gate is not in the interest of either side. Although a recent tribal jirga (council) was held between the two parties, resulting in a ceasefire, no decision has been made yet to reopen the gate.
At one point in its history, the United States pursued an isolationist strategy, famously known as the Monroe Doctrine, to distance itself from international conflicts. While Trump never explicitly advocated for isolationism, his policies and actions suggest that he may have been leaning toward a modern version of it.
