The Defense Pact between India and the United States and Its Implications for the Region and Afghanistan

By: Center for Strategic & Regional Studies Note: Click here for the PDF file of this analysis. ___________________________________________________________________ In this issue:

1. The Defense Pact between India and the United States and Its Implications for the Region and Afghanistan
2. Background of Defense and Security Relations between India and the United States
3. Objectives of the Pact
4. Regional Implications
5. Implications for Afghanistan
6. Conclusion
7. Recommendations
8. References

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Introduction

During the Cold War, the foreign policy of the United States toward South Asia was primarily centered on security concerns. The region was viewed mainly as a battleground against the Soviet Union and the spread of communism. Since India was considered an ally of the Soviet Union at the time, its relations with the United States remained cold and limited. Following the end of the Cold War, however, U.S. foreign policy toward South Asia underwent a significant transformation. Washington shifted its focus from Pakistan to India, seeking to establish strong economic and strategic relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, in 1998, following India’s nuclear tests, bilateral relations deteriorated once again. Later, the signing of the “Strategic Partnership Agreement” in 2005 marked the beginning of a renewed phase of cooperation between the two nations. However, in 2018 and 2025, the relationship cooled once more due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Indian goods and India’s reciprocal response. To rebuild these strained ties, on October 31, 2025 (Friday), India and the United States signed a ten-year defense cooperation pact. This analysis explores the significance, objectives, and potential implications of this agreement for the broader South Asian region and Afghanistan.

Background of Defense and Security Relations between India and the United States

During the Cold War, India was a close ally of the Soviet Union and, as a result, maintained no significant defense or security cooperation with the United States. After the Cold War ended, relations between India and the United States gradually improved; however, defense cooperation remained relatively weak. Following the events of September 11, 2001, the United States expanded its military presence in South Asia. Once the situation became relatively stable, Washington initiated nuclear-related negotiations with New Delhi in 2004. During these negotiations, the two sides agreed to cooperate in three specific areas:

Civilian nuclear activities;
Civilian space programs;

Trade in advanced technologies.

This new framework of cooperation was termed the “Next Steps to Strategic Partnership (NSSP).” Building upon this strategic partnership, in July 2005, U.S. President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed two landmark agreements in Washington, D.C.—one concerning U.S. arms sales to India and the other focusing on nuclear cooperation. The U.S.–India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement was finalized and approved by the U.S. Congress on October 1, 2008. Under this agreement:

India would grant inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the United Nations nuclear monitoring body access to its civilian nuclear facilities for evaluation and oversight;
India would strengthen and guarantee the security of its nuclear arsenal to prevent it from falling into the hands of adversaries;
India would refrain from transferring nuclear-related technologies to other countries and from engaging in any form of nuclear cooperation with them;
The agreement also allowed U.S. companies to construct nuclear reactors in India to generate civilian nuclear energy.

This nuclear accord was ratified by the Indian Parliament, the U.S. Congress, and the IAEA, marking a major milestone in bilateral relations. In 2016, the United States officially designated India as a “Major Defense Partner.” Subsequently, in 2018, Washington recognized India as a country with “Strategic Trade Authorization Tier 1” status, enabling it to purchase advanced military equipment and technologies from the United States. Several key defense agreements have also been signed between the two nations, including:

The Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA);
The Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA);
And the Industrial Security Agreement (ISA).

Since 2008, U.S.–India defense trade has grown dramatically—from virtually zero in 2008 to over 20 billion USD by 2020. Furthermore, in August 2024, the two countries signed the Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA), aimed at strengthening defense and security cooperation. In September 2025, India and the United States conducted joint military exercises in Alaska, underscoring their growing strategic convergence. The ten-year defense cooperation pact signed later that same year further highlights the deepening defense and security partnership between the two nations.

Objectives of the Pact

Strengthening Military Relations:

The ten-year defense pact aims to enhance military cooperation between the United States and India. Under this agreement, the two nations will conduct joint military exercises and facilitate closer collaboration between their armed forces.

Technological Cooperation:

A key aspect of the pact is cooperation in defense technology. According to the agreement, both countries will work together in areas such as advanced defense systems, cyber capabilities, and space security — all of which are critical to modern military operations.

Intelligence and Logistical Cooperation:

Another goal of the pact is to promote intelligence sharing between the two sides, as well as joint planning and coordination of naval and air operations. The agreement also covers logistical support in times of need, further strengthening operational readiness.

Facilitating Defense Trade:

The pact also seeks to simplify defense and arms trade between the two countries. It provides a framework for joint production of military equipment and defense technologies, and allows for the exchange of certain defense products through bilateral trade mechanisms.

Regional Implications

In August 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump increased trade tariffs on Indian goods, citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil — revenue from which was helping finance Russia’s war in Ukraine. In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that India would act based on its national interests and would continue purchasing oil from Russia. Soon after, Modi visited China for the first time in seven years to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit — a move that cooled U.S.–India relations while strengthening India’s ties with Russia, China, and Iran. Through this ten-year defense pact, the United States seeks to rebuild its relationship with India and prevent New Delhi from aligning too closely with Moscow and Beijing. Meanwhile, U.S. relations with Pakistan have also improved noticeably in recent months. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir have met with Trump several times, with the U.S. president referring to them as “close friends.” This renewed U.S.–Pakistan engagement has raised concerns in India, and the new pact appears to be Washington’s attempt to reassure New Delhi. Historically, whenever the United States has moved closer to either India or Pakistan, it has sought to maintain a regional balance by offering concessions to the other side. For example, after the September 11, 2001, attacks, Washington strengthened its ties with Pakistan, providing it with significant financial and military aid. In response to India’s concerns, the United States signed a “Strategic Partnership Agreement” with New Delhi in 2005 to ensure India was not alienated. Similarly, the current defense pact reflects an effort by Washington to maintain a balance between India and Pakistan and to establish a sense of deterrence in their bilateral relations. President Trump has also announced plans to reduce or eliminate tariffs on Indian goods following renewed negotiations — a move expected to normalize bilateral relations. It is worth noting, however, that India recognizes the importance of maintaining strong ties with a global power like the United States. Should relations deteriorate, Pakistan could exploit the opportunity to its advantage. For this reason, India appears willing to engage in dialogue and reconciliation. From a strategic perspective, the United States is seeking to contain China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region and disrupt its economic expansion. To achieve this, Washington relies heavily on India’s cooperation and support. The new defense pact is likely to strengthen joint surveillance, military exercises, and logistical coordination in the Indian Ocean — developments that could, however, heighten tensions between India and China. As China’s main regional rival, India remains a crucial strategic partner for the United States, and Washington is determined not to lose this alliance. The pact may also intensify strategic competition between India and China across South and Southeast Asia. For Pakistan, however, the agreement carries negative implications. It could undermine the traditional deterrence balance in South Asia and shift the regional military equilibrium in India’s favor. Two possibilities arise:

The U.S. may have already reassured Pakistan that the pact will not threaten its interests; or
If such assurances have not been given, Pakistan may respond by strengthening its ties with Russia and further deepening its partnership with China to restore the balance of power.

At the same time, the deepening of U.S.–India relations will have a positive impact on India’s allies in South and Southeast Asia, as these countries will also gain new opportunities to enhance their economic and security cooperation with Washington. In contrast, the pact will have negative consequences for Iran. Tehran had benefited from past tensions between India and the United States, which allowed it to expand trade with New Delhi, sell oil, and ease the economic pressure of international sanctions. Now, as U.S.–India relations strengthen, India will be compelled to comply with American sanctions on Iran — a development that could significantly harm Tehran’s economic interests.

Implications for Afghanistan

The strengthening of relations between the United States and India following the signing of the ten-year defense pact carries several positive implications for Afghanistan. After the agreement was concluded, the United States extended the waiver on sanctions for Iran’s Chabahar Port until April 2026. This exemption enables India to expand its trade with Afghanistan through Chabahar, thereby enhancing bilateral economic cooperation between the two countries. As a result, Afghanistan’s imports and exports are expected to increase, contributing to an overall improvement in the country’s economic conditions. Furthermore, recent tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have led to the closure of several border crossings, causing severe losses for Afghan traders and farmers. In this context, Chabahar Port offers a vital alternative trade route, reducing Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistani transit routes and mitigating the economic damage caused by the border disruptions. India has also formally reopened its embassy in Kabul, signaling the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries. This step suggests that New Delhi’s earlier “wait-and-watch” policy toward Afghanistan has come to an end and that India has gained a degree of confidence in the governance and policies of the Islamic Emirate. Consequently, a new phase of diplomatic engagement between Kabul and New Delhi has begun. One factor driving this renewed engagement is the deterioration of Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. Given India’s improving ties with both Afghanistan and the United States under the new defense framework, New Delhi could potentially play a bridging role in facilitating closer dialogue between Washington and the Islamic Emirate. Any such rapprochement between the U.S. and Afghanistan would undoubtedly yield positive outcomes for the country’s stability and development. However, it is essential to note that closer India–Afghanistan relations must not come at the expense of Pakistan. As Afghanistan’s immediate neighbor, Pakistan’s security and political dynamics have historically had a profound impact on Afghanistan’s stability. If Pakistan perceives India’s growing influence in Afghanistan as a threat, it may respond through various means to counterbalance it — a scenario that could undermine stability and security in Afghanistan. Therefore, it is crucial for the Islamic Emirate to maintain a balanced and pragmatic approach in its relations with both India and Pakistan to safeguard national interests and regional stability.

Conclusion

On October 31, 2025, India and the United States signed a ten-year defense cooperation agreement (2025–2035) aimed at strengthening military ties, enhancing logistical and technical collaboration in the defense sector, and facilitating trade in arms and defense technologies. Through this agreement, U.S.–India relations have returned to a path of normalization, following a period of tension during President Donald Trump’s administration, when increased tariffs had strained bilateral trade. President Trump has since announced his intention to reduce or completely lift those tariffs, a move expected to further reinforce the partnership between the two nations. While the renewed U.S.–India cooperation may carry negative implications for Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran, it presents notable opportunities for Afghanistan. Chief among these is the renewed U.S. waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port, which enables Afghanistan to expand its trade with India and attract new avenues of economic cooperation.

Recommendations

Facilitating U.S.–Afghanistan Relations through India:

Given that India and the United States are strategic partners, and that India’s relations with the Islamic Emirate are gradually improving, the Emirate should seek to leverage India’s role as a diplomatic bridge to help restore constructive engagement with Washington.

Expanding Trade via Chabahar Port:

In light of the ongoing tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan that have led to border closures and economic losses for Afghan farmers and traders, the Islamic Emirate should make greater use of the Chabahar trade route to strengthen commercial ties with India and diversify Afghanistan’s regional trade options.

Maintaining Balance between India and Pakistan:

Although recent tensions with Pakistan have brought Afghanistan and India closer, the Islamic Emirate must ensure that this growing relationship does not heighten Pakistan’s security concerns. Any perception in Islamabad of India’s expanding influence in Afghanistan could prompt destabilizing responses. Therefore, Kabul should pursue a balanced and pragmatic foreign policy that maintains stability and prevents the country from becoming an arena of regional rivalry.

References

Muhammad, M., Hanif, E., & Khan, I. (2018). United States foreign policy towards South Asia: A critical analysis. Pakistan Social Sciences Review, 2(2), 60. Link Bajoria, J., & Pan, E. (2010, November 5). The U.S.-India nuclear deal. Council on Foreign Relations. Link Dutta, A. N. (2025). India, US seal 10-year defence partnership framework, signal strategic convergence. The Indian Express. Link Banibrata, C. (2025). India, US to sign 10-year defense deal: What’s in it for India? Vygr News. Link India Today Business Desk. (2025). India, US in final talks to ease import tariffs and boost trade ties: Report. India Today. Link