CASA 1000; Its Impacts on Afghanistan and the Region

The CASA-1000 power project was at the outset designed at the Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA) in 2005. Its agreement became signed between the senior authorities of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. On February 6, 2020, the project was officially launched in Afghanistan by President Ashraf Ghani while Pakistan Ambassador Zahid Nasrullah Khan and Tajikistan Ambassador Sharfuddin Imam were also present at the ceremony. The Weekly Analysis discusses how and why the project started? What are its impacts on the region, specifically Afghanistan? and, how is the future of the project evaluated?

Need to CASA 1000

Since the very times of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are considered upstream countries and those of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as downstream countries. [1]

Upstream countries have produced electricity through water and downstream countries have done it through their massive gas and oil resources. 25413 Gigawatts electricity had been transferred between above-mentioned five countries through Central Asia Power System (CAPS)while upstream countries were doing this job at the summers and downstream countries were doing it in the winters. However, the collaboration has been declined after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2003, Turkmenistan, for its part, halted contribution to this partnership. The transfer of 25 thousand gigawatts of electricity declined to 7803, 6319, and 3712 gigawatts in 2000, 2005 and 2008 respectively. [2]

Explicitly, the entire countries of the globe need electricity in order to utilize it in its economic, social and other development works.

On the other hand, air pollution is considered a big challenge on the international level. World leaders emphasize that the entire counties, for the purpose of its development works, should stop or decrease the usage of the materials that play a part in air pollution.

Hence, most of the countries that are in possession of enormous water resources try to produce electricity using its own water. If hydroelectricity prevents and reduces the usage of materials that are used for development works and pollutes the air from one hand; however, from the other hand, it is considered as an enormous source of economic development and revenue generator in most of the countries.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the Central Asian countries that have vast water resources and use it is electricity generation. The mentioned countries have more electricity than is needed in summer season. In contrast, Pakistan is a South Asian country that is dire need of 5000 megawatts of electricity during summer season which makes it face electricity outage from 10 to 20 hours per day. Thus, Pakistan wants to import electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan via Afghanistan so that it could meet the need during the summer season. [3]

Outcomes for Afghanistan and the Region

The project transmission line has the capacity to move 500 kilowatts of electricity. When complete, the full CASA-1000 transmission lines will move electricity between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (477 kilometers) and from Tajikistan to Afghanistan (570 kilometers) through Sher Khan Port and, after passing through seven provinces (Kunduz, Baghlan, Panjshir, Kapisa, Kabul, Laghman, and Nangarhar), then, to Nowshera area of Pakistan via Torkham Port.

The total cost of the project is estimated to be $1.2 billion. The cost in the Afghanistan side is estimated to be $404 million whose 80 percent will be paid by the World Bank and the remaining 20 percent will be paid by the Afghan government. The construction of the transmission line from Pul-e Khumri to Kabul will be financed by The Asian Development Bank and it is estimated that Afghanistan will charge one kilowatt per hour with 1.25 cents for the transit of power which will generate a revenue of $45 million per annum.

CASA 1000 Afghanistan Centers will be constructed in 68 percent of governmental land at three camps located in Kunduz, Panjshir and Jalalabad. There will be 70 employees in each camp, including 10 foreigners, 50 local workers, and 10 security personnel. It is projected that 125 persons will work in the project whose 20-30 percent will be experts and the remaining will be local ordinary workers.

During the first [feasibility] study, it was designed that the line should be transferred to Pakistan via Badakhshan and Wakhan as the huge benefit would be a shorter distance. Despite the long distance, the logic behind transferring the line via Kunduz to Nangarhar, however, was the existence of asphalted roads along the way to facilitate the transfer and reconstruction works as well as to reduce the environmental and social effects. The project is passed through areas where Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara, and Pashtun reside and thus benefit all of them.

The work on the Afghan side is contracted with two Indian companies of (Kalpataru Power Transmission Limited (KPTL)) and (M/s KEC International Limited, India). [4]

CASA-1000 will contribute to the economic and regional connectivity between Central and South Asia. The project can also contribute to the revenue generation for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that are relatively poor countries. Practically, Afghanistan has got a status to play the role of the bridge between Central and South Asia which, besides that, will make other regional countries to share economic cooperation via Afghanistan.

Ten Million US Dollars have been allocated for the security of CASA-1000 which strengthen the security of the project from one hand; and from another hand, it also plays a role in improving Afghan security to a limit as well.

Future of CASA-1000

While there are some barriers in front of the project, CASA-1000 still helps in economic development, supply and demand, regional connectivity, and security of regional countries. Security is considered as the major barrier before the project. Another barrier is geopolitical issues that can hinder this economic project in the future.

Because if another electricity project is planned in Central Asia, the project of CASA-1000 will, then, face hurdles. For example, a political crisis between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan emerged after Tajikistan wanted to build the Rogun Dam and there were tensions between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan for some 18 years. [5]

Pakistan tries to bring Russia into the CASA-1000[6]. Although, Russia has already discussed the project and has suggested investing up to $500 million and expert electricity to Pakistan and Afghanistan; however, Tajikistan does not want Russia to take part in the project and, thus, it has nullified Russia’s request. [7]

Another peril that can jeopardize the CASA-1000 is China’s pledge to Pakistan to provide it with 3.2 gigawatts of electricity, and thus, it could decrease the power demand of Pakistan which would, then, have greater impacts in CASA-1000.[8]

It is said 1,300 megawatts of electricity will be transferred trough the CASA-1000 whose 1000 will be given to Pakistan and the remaining 300 to Afghanistan. Recently, Afghan government decided that it will not purchase those 300 megawatts from CASA-1000 because it is expensive than those of other regional countries. Therefore, if Pakistan is provided with cheap electricity facilities; it is convinced that the CASA-1000 project will become damaged.

The practical work of CASA-1000 begun in Tajikistan in May 2016 and, perhaps, the entire project work will be finished by 2022.

The matters that rally round CASA-1000 is the intentional consensus and financial assistance of the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and USAID. However, if the international community really wants Afghanistan to take practical steps towards its development, it should not only provide financial and technical assistance in Afghan dam constructions but it should also provide legal assistance to Afghanistan when it comes to the countries in the region that do not allow Afghanistan to begin its work and so create hurdles and barriers toward it.

Pakistan is in dire need of 5,000 megawatts of electricity; therefore, if Afghan government was able to start work on dam construction with the assistance of the international community as soon as possible, it would have sold its electricity to Pakistan. It would be useful in maintaining security and economic development on the regional level, specifically, it would be helpful in the economic development and strengthening ties of both developing countries. Contrariwise, Pakistan would be able to import cheap electricity with a shorter distance from Afghanistan.

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