The agreement to expand the Chabahar port was inked at the presence of the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani by the Transport Ministers of the three countries on Monday, May 23, 2016 in Tehran. The leaders of the three countries termed the agreement as a major step toward the regional economic integration.
The trilateral agreement was welcomed in the three countries. The US government also somehow welcomed the agreement, but two countries of the region who are considered to be the competitors of the project have not officially responded about the agreement.
With regard to the construction of the port, to what extent is it affected by regional and international politics? And what are the impacts of the project on the economy of Afghanistan and the region?
Iran-Afghanistan-India trilateral ties
Although Afghanistan has long historical relations with India and Iran, but in modern history of Afghanistan, Indian and Iranian cooperation began after the withdrawal of soviet troops from Afghanistan. Before withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan Iran and India’s interests were in contradiction to each other. From 1947 to 1991, Iran-Pakistan’s interests were closer than Iran-India’s interests.
After 2001, the Iran-India relations were so close in Afghanistan that construction of Chabahar port had become the symbol of cooperation between the two countries and Chabahar transit and trading port was considered the point where Afghanistan, Iran and India’s interests meet. Trilateral Chabahar agreement can pave the way for a great development in trilateral and regional relations between India, Iran and Afghanistan and may expand the circle of trilateral political engagement.
The background of construction of Chabahar port
The Chabahar port is located in Baluchistan province in southeast of Iran. Strategically, the port is located in the coast of Oman and the Indian Ocean and close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz and is capable of mooring large ships.In addition to strategic location, Chabahar has abundant natural attractions. The area is evergreen and has a temperate climate; that is why it is called Chabahar (four springs).
Since Chabahar port is the way of trading between India and Afghanistan and Central Asia, it has strategic importance for India. In 2003, when BJP was in power in India, Indian Prime Minister AtalBihari Vajpayee inked the construction agreement of the Chabahar port with Iran and Afghanistan was also part of the agreement. But due to international suctions against Iran the construction of the port was delayed. Despite that, India has spent 135 million dollars to construct Zaranj-Delaram highway which connects Zaranj (the center of Nimroz) to the Chabahar port and the construction phase of the project was completed in 2009 by India. Now after signing the trilateral agreement, India will spend 500 million dollars to expand the Chabahar port.
Since 2003, Iran has invested approximately 340 million dollars on Chabahar commercial zone. The annual loading and unloading capacity of the port is 2.5 million tons per year and Iranian government is trying to augment this number to 12.5 million tons. Besides that, Iran has invested a lot in building roads and railways between this city and border of Afghanistan and has also encouraged other countries in the region to invest in this port.
The final consensus on trilateral Chabahar port was prepared in 2015 and 2016 by economic technical teams and legal experts from India, Iran and Afghanistan.
Chabahr, under influence of regional and international politics
From 2003 onwards, the Chabahar port was under deep regional and international politics which will be briefly mentioned here:
- The Afghanistan transit issue;a major factor behind the construction of this port is rivalry and political issues of India with Pakistan. Pakistan opposes the inclusion of India in the transit agreement of APTTA. In the past, Pakistan would create obstacles on the way of trading even when Afghanistan traded with countries other than India; therefore, Chabahar is somehow a rival port against Karachi port of Pakistan.
- India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement:in 2005, the nuclear cooperation agreement was signed between US and India and due to this agreement India limited its relations with Iran and thus the construction of Chabahar port was delayed.
- The US and Security Council’s sanctions against Iran:from 2006 onwards, the US and Security Council of the United Nations issued economic sanctions against Iran and these sanctions somewhat limited the trade level of the countries in the region with Iran.
- Lifting sanctions against Iran:after the agreement of the P5+1 group and Iran in 2015, international sanctions and pressures on Iran were left and thus other countries were interested to develop relations with Iran. The removal of sanctions also accelerated the construction of Chabahar port.
- China-Pakistan Economic Zone and India and China’s rivalry in the region:rivalry between China and India on the one hand and China-Pakistan economic zone on the other hand are also the reasons why India initiated the construction of Chabahar port and accelerated its construction.
The impacts of the Chabahar agreement on the region and Afghanistan
The implementation of Chabahar project has a great importance in economic development of Afghanistan and trade with India and Central Asia. This connecting way would help Afghanistan and India to access new markets in Central Asia.
The Chabahar port provides the opportunity to the landlocked Central Asian countries like Afghanistan to have access to at least one other port and thusreduces their reliance on just one country for transition. Therefore the construction of this port is considered as an effort to free the Central Asian countries and particularly Afghanistan from reliance on transit way of Pakistan. On the other hand, Chabahar is closer to the Afghan Capital compared to Karachi port and Afghan traders can exchange their goods with other countries in lesser time and expenditures.
The Chabahar port has also a great significance to India. While China (India’s regional rival) is expanding its activities in Central Asia through “One Road, One Belt”; India wants to be connected with Afghanistan and Central Asia. On the other hand, Chabahar opens a way to the markets of the Central Asia. Due to the diplomatic tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad, India-Pakistan relations are limited but with the implementation of this agreement, Indian goods wouldcome to Afghanistan without trouble and without passing through Pakistan.
Former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh hadcalled energy security as the second priority of his country after food security.Due to India’s need for oil and gas, the country is trying to increase oil and gas trade through this port. The port will also increase India’s exports because through Chabahar port, the country would be able to increase its trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Iranon the one hand possesses vast oil and gas reserves and wants to supply oil and gas to international markets and on the other hand wants to be the transit way of the Central Asia and thus become international transit corridor. Thus the Chabahar port is very significant for Iran. If Afghanistan-Pakistan and Pakistan-India relations were not tenuous; Iran would not have had this opportunity, but now that these relations are tenuous, the transit and economic significance of Chabahar port is multiplied.
Although Chabahar agreement is a transit and trading agreement, but besides, economic interests for the three countries, it also has political and security benefits. Politically the agreement would increase coordination between Kabul, Tehran and New Delhi.
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