On 22nd March, 2020, Mike Pompeo, US secretary of State had an unannounced visit to Kabul, in order to resolve conflict over presidency between President Ashraf Ghani and former CEO Abdullah Abdullah and establish an all-inclusive government. Previously, Mike Pompeo was able to overcome obstacles that were facing peace agreement between the US and the Taliban. But apparently, he returned to the US without any hope for disposition. Is presence of two presidents actually an obstacle for peace? And how are the conditions for prisoners’ release, appointment of peace negotiation delegate and consequently, bringing peace to Afghanistan? Answers to these questions will be discussed in our analysis.
Pompeo’s visit to Kabul and the drama of two presidents
To resolve conflicts between Ashraf Ghani and former CEO Abdullah Abdullah, Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State visited Kabul a few days ago. As Mike Pompeo replaces John Kerry, former Secretary of State, unlike John Kerry’s achievement to resolve conflicts between the two leaders, Mike Pompeo was not able to establish another Unity government. As a reaction, the US Department of State threatened to reduce their funds of the current and next year by a billion dollars. In addition, the proclamation also states that the United States will also reconsider their support in international conferences.
In addition to annihilations caused by the Coronavirus to Afghanistan and the world, reduction in US aid will severely affect the economy of Afghanistan. Conversely, President Ashraf Ghani, in his speech after the cuts in US aids said that the reduction in aid will not affect the country because his administration was already prepared for such conditions. He stated that, he is not only ready to establish a unity government, but convinced to give positions to his former teammates in the new Cabinet. However, he is not ready to accept any demand that contradicts the constitution and accused Dr. Abdullah Abdullah for such demands. Dr. Abdullah Abdullah on the other hand, stated to a press conference that considering the delicate conditions in the country, he ready to forego many things. However, accused Ashraf Ghani of not making any relinquishments, which according to him, was the reason in cuts of US aids. He marked the cuts as the first stage of reductions in support from the US and expressed his concerns about losing more support of the US and the international community. Converse to their current stands, they were emphasizing on avoidance of any attempts for establishing a unity government. Yet, the continuous visits of US officials show that the US wants to experience a unity government in a new form.
The peace agreement and the issue of prisoners
According to the peace deal between the US and the Taliban, the Afghan government will release 5000 prisoners of the Taliban and the Taliban will release 1000 prisoners of the Afghan government before commencing the intra-Afghan dialogue. After some dramatic alterations in political decisions, it has been decided that the first group of prisoners will be released from Bagram prison. While according to the deal, in exchange for the releases, the Taliban and obliged to commence intra-Afghan negotiations for peace. The first part of the peace deal also states that some prisoners should be released by both sides, in order to establish an environment of trust and assurance. The recent visits of US officials to Kabul shows US’s commitment towards the peace agreement. Additionally, the US’s continues requests for establishing a unity government also indicates their tendency towards gaining the interests of the United States. This is because, if the US actually wanted to efficiently finalize the peace agreement, they would have closed the deal before commencement of the presidential elections. On the other hand, the Taliban’s request for pre-negotiations release of prisoners and the Taliban’s refusal to negotiate with the government as an official side, is great challenge for peace, which will not only delay the results, but may remove hopes for peace. While the recent video conferences between the Taliban, the Afghan government, the US and Qatar government and visit of the Taliban’s delegation to Kabul in order to confirm the list of their prisoners, has increased hopes for resolving the prisoners’ release issue. The Taliban’s delegates visit was previously delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak and the prisoners’ release process is planned to commence on 31st March, 2020.
Announcing of Delegation for intra-Afghan dialogue
On 28th March, 2020, the Afghan government announced its Masoom Stanikzai lead 21-membered delegation. Afghanistan’s state ministry of peace has expressed that all sides have been consulted before announcing the delegate. Yet, some political leaders still criticize the comprehensiveness of the delegation and says that it only favors the Afghan government and they have been consulted by any means.
Considering the structure of the delegation, inclusion of members from key political parties, civil activists, and women have been placed. However, considering the complicatedness of the peace issues and the experience, it is suspected the will not be able to perform such great responsibility. On the other hand, the Taliban’s proclamation about the peace delegation indicates they expect the government to be participant in the delegation, without being the party in-charge. Through the proclamation, the Taliban has once again emphasized that they are not willing to negotiate with the Afghan government as an opposite side. Such dissensions will not only affect the prisoners’ release issue, but will also challenge the peace process. Another main cause of interruption in peace process is promises made by the US government, yet, blames the Afghan government for the delays. Through this, they not only avoid blames, but delays the peace process. As their involvement has facilitated presence of two presidents, the continues requests for a unity government has eased prisoners release issue and a way in for intra-Afghan dialogue.
Conclusion
Presence of dual presidents and inability in implementation of promises made in the peace deal between the US and the Taliban has increased violence in the country. For instance, some groups strive to sabotage the process by bringing violence to the picture, as shown via attack on the Temple of Sikh residents of Afghanistan. Therefore, the opportunity for peace should not be wasted.
Considering the complicatedness of peace process, those which creates obstacles for peace must be eliminated, if the intention of both sides truly is bringing peace to Afghanistan. Through this, experiences of destruction and violence and be avoided and challenges facing the peace process can be reduced.
The Afghan political leader should resolve the dissension between Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and President Ghani as soon as possible, so that the opportunity for peace can be efficiently utilized. In addition, compared to the US and other countries, Afghan leaders have the higher chance of establishing an environment of trust and assurance. Their efforts will consequently result a last peace and a comprehensive ceasefire in the country.
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References:
- https://www.npr.org/2020/03/24/820550175/u-s-disappointed-in-afghan-leadership-will-slash-1-billion-in-aid-pompeo-says
- https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/politics/secretary-of-state-mike-pompeo-afghanistan/index.html
- https://www.bbc.com/pashto/afghanistan-52015892
- https://twitter.com/suhailshaheen1
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/taliban-refuses-to-talk-to-afghan-governments-negotiating-team
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/gunmen-attack-sikh-religious-complex-kabul-interior-ministry-200325044905522.html