On March 9, 2019, President Mohammed Ashraf Ghani took the oath in ARG (the Afghan Presidential Palace). At the same time, his rival and former partner in the National Unity Government (NUG), Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, had also held the oath-taking ceremony as a pro-claimed president not far from the ARG, in the Sapidar Palace. A number of foreign diplomats and representatives of international organizations, including Zalmai Khalilzad had attended the ceremony of President Ghani. While there was no one from outside beside Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, except for the members of the Stability and Convergence Team and their supporters.
The final results of the presidential elections were announced after five months of delays on February 8, where Mohammad Ashraf Ghani was declared the winner of the election. In response, Dr. Abdullah, citing what he called fraudulent elections, not only rejected the electoral results but also declared himself the real winner of the election and the country’s President, speaking of the establishment of an inclusive government. During the post-election brawl, he nominated three governors for the provinces of Sar-i Pol, Jawzjan and Baghlan, and the Panjshir governor announced his support for Dr Abdullah.
The affray comes as the Afghan constitution considers the way to reach Presidency is through an election and that gives the IEC the power to hold, count and announce the results. This analysis attempts to examine the major consequences of the two inaugural ceremonies. Of course, the negative role of the US cannot be denied either. As Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said: “The divisive and heinous act of the United States against the Afghan people has led to two oath-taking ceremonies in the country. “If the United States really wanted to resolve the crisis, it could have prevented divisions and instability through constructive and timely action before the ceremony.”
Impact On People Emotions and Feelings
The people of Afghanistan are currently facing serious challenges, including war and insecurity, poverty and unemployment, kidnapping and theft and many more. Forty-one years of war and insecurity have been taken sacrifices from people of the country. Half of our people are living in absolute poverty and one out of every two people eligible to work is unemployed. Theft and kidnapping have endangered the physical and psychological security of our people. If we look at the widespread corruption, the application of the two oath-taking ceremonies in one country at the same time has raised concerns among the people. At the moment, people don’t know where their future is going. In addition, the lack of physical and psychological insecurity causes the remaining wealth to be transferred abroad, because if investors feel that their capital is in danger, they will undoubtedly seek to withdraw their capital from Afghanistan. The Afghan people really feel deprived and embarrassed when they see their politics being busy with political bargaining and power struggles instead of deflecting the growing danger of Corona virus and taking swift and decisive actions to prevent it.
Impact on the Peace Process
The realization of peace is one of the basic needs in the country, since it has been at war for more than forty-one years. This war has caused many cataclysms in the country and has sent millions to death. A peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, was signed on February 29, after eighteen months of negotiations between the parties. According to the agreement, the process of intra-Afghan negotiations was scheduled to begin on March 10; but unfortunately, due to the lack of release of political prisoners and the lack of preparation of the Afghan government and politics, the negotiations did not begin on a specific date.
Two oath-taking ceremonies can have detrimental effects on the peace process, including patchy intra-Afghan negotiations, chance for negative interference and opportunity. Intra-Afghan talks are expected to have two parties, one, the Afghan government, and politicians under its umbrella and second, the Taliban group. If the problem is not resolved before the commencement of the negotiations, the process of intra-Afghan negotiations will be divided into several parts, which will further complicate the dispersal and multiplicity of negotiations. In addition, there are groups inside and outside the country who do not want peace and want the war to continue in Afghanistan. The two divisions in the Afghan government can make them more likely to intervene in favor of war and act as the detriment of peace. For forty-one years, Afghanistan has never been so close to peace. On the one hand, there is almost a universal consensus on peace, as well as a comprehensive internal inclusion. In addition, all parties have embraced the negotiations as a mean to resolve country’s current problems. Now, if the opportunity is lost by power struggles, it is certain that Afghanistan will enter another civil war that will continue until an indeterminate time.
Impact on Country’s Security and Stability
Afghanistan is one of the most insecure countries in the world. War, poverty, the existence of political and economic mafia, and the incompetency of government in the process of protecting people are the main factors behind insecurity in the country. However, there is relative security in many cities and areas of the country. Announcing the two governments will cause further turmoil and will have an extremely negative impact on Afghanistan’s security and stability.
If the status quo, god forbids, results in two divisions of the Afghan armed forces, then the country will go into a deeper crisis that will threaten the condition of the One Afghanistan. Although there is no sing of the differences among armed forces in the country so far, it is worth noting that, god forbids, the failed experiences of Mujahideen’s in the 1970s shall not be repeated.
A Rigid Blow for Democracy
In democratic systems, the mean to achieve political power is through the electoral channel, which has been accepted by Afghan politicians; however, in practice, there are many problems. Unlike other countries, elections in Afghanistan have always been marred by controversy, and the latest has resulted in two parallel governments in the country. Obviously, this builds up and distrusts people with the election process and the democratic process. However, people trust in the electoral process had diminished before, as can be seen in the very low turnout in the recent presidential elections. But mocking the election results will make people unbelievably grounded in the election and will have a severe blow for democracy in the country.
Honor and Prestige of Afghanistan
Despite many ups and downs Afghanistan is a country that has achieved many honors in its 5000 year of history. Although being a poor and war-torn country at the present time, its honor and prestige is still respected in many places. Afghanistan is a country whose people have not embraced colonialism and managed to bring down two empires in a century. Having two oath-taking ceremonies at the same time is a preposterous drama that was executed by our politicians and unfortunately brought the country’s prestige under question.
Conclusion
Having two oath-taking ceremonies at ARG and Sapidar were a black mark on the forehead of Afghanistan by the supporters of democracy. Not only did it damage the reputation of the country, but it also proved the dishonesty of the supporters of democracy. If the two groups are not come to a solution, it will have a negative impact on people’s mentality, national security, peace process and democracy. Most importantly, if these two groups make their way between the armed forces of the country, then Afghanistan’s conditions and territorial integrity would also be at risk.
In view of that, it is necessary for President Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah (former partners in the NUG) to come together urgently to resolve the country’s leadership crisis in order to succeed in the peace process and for the highest interests of Afghanistan.
If Afghan politicians and nation do not act cautiously at this critical juncture in the country’s history, it is likely that not only will our country find true peace but also a darker future for our country awaits.