In June 2nd, 2015 a year of swap deal between Taliban and US government has been completed. Last year, Bowe Bergdahl, an American soldier who remained in Taliban imprisonment for five years, was exchanged with five Taliban leaders jailed in Guantanamo bay. In Afghan media different bruits were circulated regarding their fate.
Initially, it was agreed upon between Taliban and US government that freed Taliban leaders will remain in Qatar for a year. It was a precautionary measure of US government to prevent the freed Taliban to lead war against their troops.
After completion of a year, CIA director John Brenna said in an interview with CNN that they would talk to Qatar officials regarding the released Taliban. In some news reports it was said that the released Taliban will be prevented of traveling until US government reach a deal with them.
On the other hand, Taliban released statement on the issue. “According to agreement, the released Taliban leaders will remain free and they can travel wherever Islamic Emirate prefers” The Taliban expressed on first anniversary of the swap.
The High Peace Council of Afghan government requested to hand over Taliban-five to Kabul, so they can play a role in peace process.
Can Released Taliban Play a Role in the Peace Process?
The request of handing over five Taliban members to Kabul seems useless based on the reasons:
Firstly: The freed Taliban were military commanders before US invasion of Afghanistan. They held military posts before being imprisoned by US. They are not diplomats and have no experience in this regard. So they cannot play vital role in peace process.
Secondly: The released Taliban leaders were in jail till May 2014. They have been unfamiliar with new wide changes in the group structure and political situation in Afghanistan since then.
Thirdly: The five were freed on endeavors of Taliban Political Office Qatar. They cannot play a role in peace without consent of Taliban’s Office.
Fourthly: Some other high profile Taliban leaders have been released from Guantanamo bay before this swap deal. Foreign Minister of Taliban Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil and their ambassador to Islamabad, Abdul Salam Zaeef were released before them. In spite of having political background, they did not play any role in peace process.
Fifthly: Even if they enter in peace process, they could not perform a useful role, because most of the Taliban fighters are young and they are not familiar with them.
Parallel Peace Efforts
First: Taliban delegates in Qatar are authorized by Taliban. They try to represent the group without any influence of Pakistan.
Second: In order to gain President Ashraf Ghani’s trust, Pakistan exposes as it has started negotiation between Taliban and Afghan government.
Last month, negotiations with Taliban were in the top stories of news. In Al-khor of Qatar, a seminar was invited by Pugwash international institution. Last week another meeting of peace held in Urumqi of China. In Qatar Pugwash Seminar, Taliban delegation participated, but in Urumqi meeting people who participated on behalf of Taliban, have no post currently in Taliban. Some reports stated that Mulla Jalil, Mulla Hasan Rahmani and Abdurraziq participated in Urumqi meeting on behalf of the group, but Taliban officially denied participation in the meeting.
Some media are talking of Taliban representative’s presence in Urumqi meeting while the rest give the credit of Pugwash to Pakistan. One of the repetitive mistakes of the Afghan government in peace process was and is that it values Pakistan more than its actual role and this mistake not only made the process face stalemate but complexes it too.
Since the formation of “National Unity” government, President Ghani made efforts to make a break-through in the country’s foreign policy. President has tried to fundamentally change the relations with Pakistan which causedcriticism in the country. Ghani’s government is optimistic for peace because of the promises made by Pakistan.
Pakistan promised Kabul in the last February that Taliban will participate in direct talks with Kabul in early March. The promise provoked hopes for peace. But two more months passed, too, without any tangible peace initiatives.
Why Taliban did not participate in Urumqi Meeting?
Taliban Qatar Office members were interested to participate in Urumqi meeting, but the group refused when they came to know regarding participation of Pakistan and High Peace Council members, sources close to the group expressed. Qatar Office spokesman, Dr. Naeem Wardag refused participation of the group’s any delegation in Urumqi. Naeem considered it propagation against the Political Office.
Sources close to Taliban said the delegations did not participated in Urumqi, in order to remove the possibility of mentality that they were sit there as a result of Pakistan leverage. When the Qatar Office inaugurated in 2013, Pakistan got a foe stance against the diplomatic initiative of the group. ISI, the intelligence agency of Pakistan arrested two brothers of Qatar Office Head, Sayed Mohammad Taib Agha. And, Taib Agha was reportedly asked to visit Islamabad which he refused. The delegations of Taliban in Qatar visited certain countries and participated in different conferences, except Pakistan.
The Increasing Hurdles in the Way of Peace
The NUG has created more barriers in the way of peace rather to honestly support it. A source disclosed that President Ghani a meeting with Qatar Office Members and promised them of postponing BSA, during his last year election campaign. But the president signed BSA hours after the oath ceremony, which is considered the biggest barrier in the way of peace process.
The Afghan government improved its relations with Pakistan believing that the Taliban elders are in full control of Pakistan and it can do everything. In response, the group accelerated and intensified its spring operations to prove its independence. Therefore, they are not ready for peace talks, especially through Pakistan. The group fears, Pakistan will deal on its political fate defame them.
Now, extension of the house-arrest of five Taliban commanders who were swop with Bowe Bergdahl last year will more increase the trust deficit. Because based on the deal with them, one year house-arrest term has over and now they are free. They considers the rumors of extension repugnant to the international principles. If Taliban are treated against the agreement, it will affect the future agreements with the group.
Conclusion
Released Taliban were freed by Taliban Qatar Office initiative and they are still residing there. They cannot initiate a parallel peace initiative and they have no such intentions.
High peace council believes if released Taliban leaders are handed over to Kabul, they will play a positive role in peace process while high profile released Taliban did not play a role in peace process, while they live in Kabul.
Pakistan still endeavors to gain Afghan government’s trust that is why they expose so that the key of peace is with them.
Pakistan intended to benefit from the presence of Taliban Qatar Office members in Urumqi, but the meeting did not bear any fruit for Pakistan.
Efforts are made by Taliban to get rid of Pakistan influence in peace process. If Afghan government does the same, it will benefit peace efforts.
Pressurizing the released Taliban would not be fruitful topeace process, but it will make obstacles in the way of peace.
The End