Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Jawad Zarif visited Afghanistan in an official trip on 7 May 2017 and met the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and the Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs Sallahuddin Rabbani.
The trip occurs at a time that, on the one hand, Iran is concerned about the ISIL activities in Afghanistan, Iran has established relations with the Taliban, the leader of Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin Hekmatyar has come to Kabul, and on the other hand, Iran is moving towards the (Russia, China and Pakistan) bloc and two weeks later Presidential elections will be held in Iran.
The position of Iran in the Afghan foreign policy, Afghanistan’s position in the Iranian foreign policy and Iran’s role in the current domestic politics of Afghanistan are issues that are analyzed here.
Kabul-Tehran ties
Due to the common language and culture and the invasion threats on behalf of Iran, this country have had particular importance in the Afghan foreign policy throughout the history. During the cold war, Afghanistan had close ties with Iran; Iran played the mediator role in Pak-Afghan relations and also influenced Afghanistan through its financial contributions. During the Afghan Jihad against Soviet Union, the communist Afghan governments were concerned about Iran’s aids to the Afghan Mujahidin. During the civil war, Iran had severed relations with Austad Rabbani compared to the Shiite groups; but later when the Taliban appeared in the Afghan political scene, these relations were repaired.
After 2001, as during the cold war, Iran has had especial importance in the Afghan foreign policy; because enormous number of Afghan migrants is in Iran. Iran was an important player in the past wars in Afghanistan and is an alternative transit and trade way for Afghanistan.
After Ashraf Ghani came to power in Afghanistan, he introduced the five circle of Afghan foreign policy in the three of which Iran was included: neighbors, Islamic world and Asian countries. However, during the National Unity Government, relations with Iran were at low levels. The main reasons behind these severe relations were Iran’s relations with the Taliban, Kabul’s policy towards Iran and Saudi Arabia, the emergence of ISIL in Afghanistan and negotiations over the water-related issues.
Furthermore, in the past several decades, due to its security and economic interests, Iran has paid special attention to Afghanistan. However, Afghanistan and Iran were competitors in some of the economic projects (TAPI). Last year (2016), when Iran and the world’s powers (5+1) came to an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program, the sanctions on Iran were lifted and new opportunities were created for Iran; for instance, involvement in some major projects, foreigner’s investments in Iran, and etc. Therefore, now hopes are increased regarding the Chabahar port, five-nation railway and extension of Iran’s energy pipeline through Afghanistan to China.
Iran’s current role in Afghanistan
After the formation of the NUG in Afghanistan, compared to Karzai’s presidency, Iran’s role in Afghanistan changed. During Karzai’s government in Afghanistan, through maintaining relations with the Afghan government, and increasing its soft power through media, and providing scholarships for Afghan students and some other means and supporting Shiite groups in the government and elsewhere Iran was involved in Afghanistan. But now except for Iran’s support from the Shiite groups in Afghanistan, Iran’s position in Afghanistan is altered, which are indicated in the following lines:
The fear of ISIL; the emergence of ISIL in the Middle East was largely against Iran and Iran-affiliated groups. Therefore, due to its policy towards the “Middle East”, Iran was engaged with ISIL in Iraq and Syria. Later, ISIL’s emergence in Afghanistan and besides Sunnis, consecutively targeting Shiites by ISIL, Iran became concerned. These concerns were due to two following reasons:
First, ISIL targeted Iran’s allies in Afghanistan;
Second, ISIL also threatened Iran from Afghanistan.
Relations with the Afghan Taliban; during the NUG, for the first time Iran officially expanded relations with the Taliban. A member of Taliban’s political office in Qatar was invited to an Islamic Conference in Iran and later Taliban’s former leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour traveled to Iran for several times. It was Taliban’s close relations with Iran that eventually distanced it from Saudi Arabia. All of these indicate close relations between Tehran and Taliban’s political office in Qatar. However, there are two main reasons behind the close relations between Iran and the Afghan Taliban;
First, the US’s long-term presence in Afghanistan and its unclear policy in the region which has raised the concerns of the countries in the region.
Second, ISIL’s emergence in Afghanistan and the existence of the conspiracy theories in this regard which suggest that the US and the Afghan government are behind it.
Involvement in regional politics; due to geopolitical changes in the region and during the NUG in Afghanistan, regarding the Afghan issue, Iran is moving towards Russia, China and Pakistan. This situation is unacceptable for the Afghan government, therefore, the Afghan government first criticized the first Moscow meeting and then in Jawad Zarif’s recent visit to Kabul, Afghanistan reiterated that Afghanistan’s stability should not be gambled in regional rivalry.
Cold relations with the Afghan government; during the NUG, the followings were the disputed points between Iran and the Afghan government:
First, starting negotiation over water-related issues. According to the Afghan government an agreement is previously singed in this regard, but Iran claimed that the previous agreement needs revision. It is yet unclear whether dialogue over the water issues will start or not, but yet it will decide the future bilateral relations.
Second, delay in signing the bilateral strategic agreement between Iran and Afghanistan. The two sides even have not introduced the committee to prepare the draft of this agreement.
Third, Afghan migrants in Iran: sending Afghan migrants to fight in Syrian war and their forced return to Afghanistan are also issues that affect the bilateral relations between the two countries. Currently there are around 3 million Afghan migrants in Iran.
Fourth, due to emergence of ISIL, Iran established relations with the Taliban rather than the Afghan government.
Jawad Zarif’s trip to Iran and Kabul-Tehran future relations
During Zarif’s visit to Kabul, the Afghan and Iranian side talked over issues that could influence the future relations between the two countries. But on the other hand, if the current Iranian President was replaced after the Presidential elections in the upcoming two weeks in Iran, this trip will not have profound impacts in Kabul-Tehran relations in some of the issues. In this trip, the Iranian side emphasized over the necessity to review the water-sharing agreement. Furthermore, the two sides demanded the formation of the committee for preparing the draft of the strategic agreement between the two countries.
The Afghan government cleared its stance regarding the recent developments and also pointed out the cooperation fields between the two countries. “Terrorist groups are our common enemy. We do not embrace terrorists nor do we use them as proxies,” said President Ghani in his meeting with Zarif, “the current war in Afghanistan is not a civil war… we have undertaken serious measures against ISIL… Afghanistan’s stability and the security of our borders are important for us… Afghanistan’s stability should not be the victim of regional rivalries.”
In order to increase cooperation between the two countries, the Afghan government demanded from Iran to give working licenses to Afghan workers; this way economic migration and smuggling will also be prevented. Iran could be linked with Uzbekistan and China through Afghanistan and there is room for cooperation in Chabahar port and border issues as well.
Overall, the future relations between Kabul and Tehran are related to the following issues:
First, whether or not the Afghan government conducts operations against ISIL and thus answers to the concerns of regional countries regarding the Afghan government being behind ISIL;
Second, Iran’s relations with the Afghan Taliban;
Third, the future US policy towards Afghanistan and the region;
Fourth, the negotiations over disputed points (for instance the issue of water sharing).
The end