Since the past several years, regional and international powers have initiated efforts for the Afghan peace process. The upcoming conference on Afghanistan in Moscow and its subsequent developments is an example of these efforts.
In the meanwhile, at the recent meeting of NATO ministers of foreign affairs, the US Secretary of States Rex Tillerson said that the US is committed to peace between the Afghan government and the Taliban. However, some senior US military officials have called for the deployment of additional troops to Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Pakistani Ambassador in the US Aizaz Ahmad has also announced his five-points formula regarding the Afghan peace process before the announcement of the Trump’s policy.
How did the peace efforts extended from internal to the international initiative? What is the US policy towards peace? What are the impacts of the Moscow Conference and what are the coordination and non-coordination between the superpowers regarding the Afghan peace process. These are the questions that are analyzed in this part of the analysis.
Evaluation of the peace efforts in NUG’s tenure
After the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG) in Afghanistan, once again, the Afghan peace process started, but this time, it was, on the one hand, highly reflected in the media and, on the other hand, started somehow different than the efforts undertaken previously. This time, in its peace policy, the Afghan government, to a greater extent, relied on China and Pakistan. Hence, the Murree talks with the Taliban were held. However, after the Murree talks, the second phase of the negotiations was not held.
The Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) regarding the Afghan peace process and talks with the Taliban was established to guarantee the commitments made between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Besides Afghanistan and Pakistan, China and the US were also included in this group. QCG held five meetings regarding the peace process but failed to achieve any desirable outcomes regarding the talks with the Taliban.
Given the past two and half years, the NUG’s this policy, which sought to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table through regional countries, has failed to a greater part. During this time, the only achievement of the Afghan government in the peace process was, after an intra-Afghan talk, the peace deal with Hezb-e-Islami. However, this peace agreement was a result of Hezb-e-Islami’s tendency rather than an initiative on behalf of the Afghan government.
The current deadlock of the peace process
Although the Taliban could not reject the Murree talks, in a responsive move, this group increased the authorities of the Taliban’s Political Office in Qatar and announced this office as the only address of the negotiations with the Taliban. Later-on, the group refused to participate in the then newly started quadrilateral talks’ process regarding the Afghan peace process.
It is now about one year since the Taliban’s announcement, but during this time tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have increased. Distrust between the Afghan government and the Taliban has augmented as well, and the Taliban continued their fight. Besides that, another leading player in Afghanistan, the US, was also focused on elections in the US. Therefore, this situation faced the peace process with an impasse and during this time, except for some small events, no significant decision, stance or measure was held regarding the peace in Afghanistan.
The unclear US policy towards the Afghan peace process
During the last two years of Obama’s presidency, the US has played the role of observer or somehow mediator in the Afghan peace process, in Murree talks for instance. However, after the installation of the new administration in the US, the US’s policy, to a greater part, is unclear towards not only Afghanistan but also the entire South Asia.
It became five months since the transfer of power to the new US President, but the US’s policy towards South Asia, in general, and Afghanistan and Pakistan, in particular, is unclear. In the South Asian region, only the US’s policy towards India is somehow clear. The new US President Donald Trump has talked with Narendra Modi through telephone, and the National Security Advisors of the two countries have also met. Hence, in such unclear situation, there seems to be some coordination between the two nations. On the other hand, Trump’s policy towards Pakistan and Afghanistan appears to be unclear, and since November 2016, Trump has made no statement regarding these two countries, except for the phone calls with the Pakistani Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz Sharif and the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
The main reason behind the US’s uncertain policy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan is a lack of policy making regarding this region. According to the former US Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, the US may announce its policy regarding Afghanistan and Pakistan at the end of April or at the beginning of May 2017.
It must be noted that policy regarding the Afghan peace process is part of the US policy in the South Asian region. Therefore, the US policy in Afghanistan, to a greater extent, will be influenced by the US policy in South Asia and whenever the US policy towards South Asia is announced, its policy towards the Afghan peace process will also be cleared.
Although the US has not announced its policy regarding South Asia and the Afghan peace process, some US generals and recently the US Secretary of States have made statements regarding the Afghan peace process. These statements were, to a greater part, in contradiction to each other. For instance, last week, the US Secretary of States Rex Tillerson said that “the NATO coalition is committed to peace in Afghanistan, and want to reach a settlement among them at the end. The coalition’s interests will be insured, and Afghanistan will not become a sanctuary for terrorism.” Before this, in his speech in the US Senate, the Commander of Foreign forces in Afghanistan General Nicolson had said that to break through the stalemate in Afghanistan it is needed to send more troops to this country.
The Moscow Conference on peace: is the peace process going to change?
From 2009 to 2016, the countries in the region had a consensus that peace in Afghanistan is necessary. In the meanwhile, these countries had not started any peace efforts without first informing Afghanistan and the US. However, at the end of 2016, the Moscow Conference on Afghanistan between Russia, China, and Pakistan was the first effort by the countries in the region without the involvement of the Afghan and US governments. Emergence and expansion of ISIL in the region, the confrontation between Russia and the US in the international politics and existence of the idea that the US does not want the resolution of the Afghan case were the main reasons behind the convention of Moscow meeting.
After the beginning of the Moscow meeting, the Afghan government harshly reacted. Therefore, the Afghan government was invited to the Second Moscow Conference. Six countries had participated in this conference. The third Moscow meeting is expected to be held on April 14 where 12 countries will be participating. Moscow has invited Washington and the Taliban as well, but reports say that the US has rejected to take part in this conference. Washington believes that Russia and Iran are supporting the Taliban and, therefore, the two countries cannot play a role in the peace process.
The Moscow Conference on Afghanistan can play an active role in the Afghan case and equally can further complicate the situation in Afghanistan. However, the outcomes rather rely on Russia, the US, the Afghan government and the Taliban. Because, if the purpose of this meeting is to push the US out of the region or to exclude it from the peace talks, the Afghan government and the US will oppose it, the Taliban’s relations with the countries in the regions would expand, and the peace process will remain in its current status. Nevertheless, if the objective of the Moscow meeting was to save the Central Asia from violence, somehow peace between the Afghan government and the Taliban, and the withdrawal of the US troops based on a schedule, this meeting would have positive effects.
The end