The Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs Salahuddin Rabbani traveled Moscow last week while, in the past two years, suspicions have been growing in Kabul-Moscow relations. Therefore, news about this visit were widely reflected in national and international media, and now after this visit, there exists hopes that tensions between the two countries will decrease.
Two improvements were made in Rabbani’s trip: First, Russia will continue its contributions to Afghanistan in various fields, particularly in military-technical fields; Second, Russia will organize a regional conference about Afghanistan in Moscow on February 15, where regional countries- Russia, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and Iran will be participating.
How were the Afghan-Russian relations during the National Unity Government (NUG) in Afghanistan? How did tensions raised in Kabul-Moscow relations? And will suspicions in these relations terminate? Here we have analyzed these and other similar questions.
Kabul and Moscow; from regional consensus to trust deficit
After 2001, Afghanistan had normal relations with Russia, but in the second term of Karzai’s Presidency, these relations began to improve. After the formation of the NUG in Afghanistan, the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and the Afghan National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar, in an effort to fight against extremism, tried to reach a regional consensus. In following efforts to this end, both Ghani and Atmar traveled to Russia and, at first, Russia promised four helicopters to the Afghan government, but soon relations between the two countries deteriorated, which had the four following reasons behind it:
First; ISIL’s emergence and activities in Afghanistan which attracted Russia’s attention towards this country. In addition, accusations, made by some Afghan Parliament members, about the Afghan National Security Council’s support from ISIL also increased Russia’s distrust on Afghan government’s anti-terrorism efforts.
Second; improving relations between Moscow and the Taliban, which concerned the Afghan government, and in response, emphasized on state-to-state talks rather than talks with groups.
Third; the Russia, China and Pakistan trilateral meeting on Afghanistan organized by Russia also shadowed bilateral relations between the two countries.
Fourth; in the first week of January 2017, news were released about Russia trying to create obstacles in the way of delisting Hezb-e-Islami (HI) leader Hekmatyar’s name from the UN blacklist. Trying to implement the provisions of the peace deal with HI, the Afghan government had demanded from the UN to remove Hekmatyar’s name from its blacklist.
Are suspicions going to come to an end?
Before Rabbani’s visit to Russia, suspicions had increased in Kabul-Moscow relations; but now given the remarks and decisions made in this trip, it seem as though relations between the two countries are improving. Because:
First; although, at first, Russia had expressed concern about delisting Hekmatyar’s name from the UN blacklist, but on February 2017, due to Russia’s cooperation, Hekmatyar’s name was removed from the UN sanctions list.
Second; the two sides (Afghanistan and Russia) promised to cooperate in Security-Military-Technical fields and particularly the combating abilities of the Afghan government were enhanced and they received new weapons. In this regard, the two sides also began to build a legal framework, which was implemented in November 2016.
Third; regional countries (Russia, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and India) are going to take part in a conference on Afghanistan, to be held in Moscow on 15 February 2017.
Fourth; supporting Afghanistan’s membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and building the “Contact Group” regarding Afghanistan within this organization.
Fifth; emphasizing on such a negotiations with the Taliban, which is based on the UN Security Council’s resolutions and the Afghan government’s support.
Sixth; coordination in increasing the meetings between the two countries’ ministers of foreign affairs.
Generally, the recent visit of the Afghan Foreign Minister was an effort to improve relation between the two countries, which, in the short term, will decrease suspicions between the two countries and will bring the opinions of the two countries closer. But still, the internal situation in the country and some international factors (particularly increasing tensions in relations between Russia on the one side and NATO and the US on the other) can increase distrust between Kabul and Moscow.
Afghanistan; from the superpowers’ rivalry to regional powers’ coordination
Since the past one year, cooperation between the two superpowers –the US and Russia- in Afghanistan has ended and Moscow has, for several times, criticized the US strategy in Afghanistan. Therefore, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lovrov blamed the former US President Barrack Obama for the termination of cooperation between Russia and the US in Afghanistan and said that the two sides had not met during Obama’s Presidency and thus suspicions increased in relations between the two countries.
Crises in Ukraine and Syria have also played a key role in putting an end to cooperation between Russia and the US in Afghanistan. Russia is now interested in Afghanistan’s issue and makes contradictory remarks regarding the US strategy in Afghanistan. For instance, it sometimes questions the US bases in Afghanistan and then sometimes says that if the US troops withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, situation in Afghanistan will further deteriorate.
Increasing influence of ISIL in Afghanistan and its increased activities in Northern Afghanistan have also resulted in more attention of Russia towards Afghanistan. Therefore, Russia is organizing a conference of regional countries, without involving the US and NATO, to discuss the Afghan issue and, thus, tries to find a regional solution for Afghanistan’s issue. But, ignoring the involved parties in Afghanistan (the US, NATO and the Taliban) while holding such conferences, which are aimed at settling the conflict in Afghanistan, will make it impossible for these conferences to achieve their goals. It is necessary to create coordination between the regional countries and the US in fundamental and general issues such as paving the way for the Afghan peace process and the peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
The end