Since the past several weeks, some countries are making diplomatic efforts in Kabul to improve the Pak-Afghan relations. In this regard, an effort by England, which has offered to mediate between the two countries, is mention worthy. It is the first time, after the Heart of Asia Conference, that foreign diplomats have undertaken such efforts.
On the other hand, in the first month of 2017, Special Representative of the Afghan President and the Afghan Ambassador in Pakistan Omar Zakhilwal met the leader of Pakistani group of Jamiat-e-Ulama-e-Islami Mawlana Sami-ul-Haq twice. During the second meeting, the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani also talked with Mawlana through telephone. Most of the Afghan Taliban has received education in Mawlana’s madrasas and, due to education in Haqania madrasa of Mawlana, some Afghan Taliban have chosen the term “Haqani” as their last names.
Besides that, the leaders of some other groups in Pakistan such as Pakistan people’s party and Awami National party also made remarks about the improvement of relations between Kabul and Islamabad.
How were the Pak-Afghan relations during the National Unity Governments (NUG)? What are the consequences of tenuous Pak-Afghan relations? Whether tensions in these relations would end or not? And what is the future of these relations? Here we have tried to answer these and other similar questions.
Kabul-Islamabad tenuous relations
After the formation of the NUG in Afghanistan, the Pak-Afghan relations experienced as much ups and downs that was unprecedented in the history of relations between the two countries.
After the formation of NUG in Afghanistan, relations between Kabul and Islamabad improved. First, the Afghan government gave many privileges to Pakistan and then Pakistan gave special protocol to the Afghan President, kind of protocol that, previously, Pakistan would give only to Chinese and Saudi leaders.
But after the intensification of insecurities and the first Murree talks, when the Taliban did not come to the negotiation table, suspicion in Kabul-Islamabad relations increased. Later-on, the Turkham incident occurred and the Afghan government, for the first time, rejected a country’s (Pakistan) financial aid.
Due to these tenuous relations between the two countries, more than five hundred thousand Afghan refugees returned from Pakistan, the value of trade between the two countries decreased to about one billion dollars and transition of Afghan goods through Pakistan also diminished.
Are tensions going to end?
The history of tenuous relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan goes back to creation of Pakistan. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan tensions between Kabul and Islamabad increased. At first, there were two fundamental issues in Kabul Islamabad relations: unacceptance of the Durand line and supporting the movement that demanded the creation of Pashtunistan.
The above mentioned issues (indirectly), insecurity in the country, Taliban’s sanctuaries in Pakistan and Pakistan’s failure in bringing the Taliban to the negotiation table were issues that played a role in deterioration of Pak-Afghan relations.
In current situations, the foreign diplomats’ efforts would improve relations between the two countries in the short run, but these relations would rely on the above mentioned issues in the long run.
England had previously mediated between Kabul and Islamabad during Karzai’s term and even the three countries had held several trilateral meetings but these efforts did not have remarkable outcomes.
Besides that, if the Afghan senior officials’ idea about Pakistan’s ability to bringing the Taliban to the negotiation table is changed, the Pak-Afghan bilateral relations would improve, but currently the improvement of these relations seem impossible.
The future of bilateral relations
Although some people believe that unless the above mentioned fundamental issues are resolved between Pakistan and Afghanistan, improvement of the relations between the two countries would be impossible, but there exists countries in the world that, ignoring their border issues, have established strong economic relations with each other. Therefore, it is possible for Afghanistan and Pakistan to have better relations even without the settlement of Durand line’s issue, but it would rather need a fundamental scheme and plan on behalf of the two countries.
Currently, the Kabul-Islamabad relations rely on two issues: first, Pakistan’s promise to the Afghan government to stop the Taliban from using Pakistan’s soil against Afghanistan. Second, undertaking such a behavior by both Kabul and Islamabad, regarding the peace talks, that would result, with the observation (but not mediation) of Pakistan, in facilitation of talks between the Afghan government and Taliban’s office in Qatar. Thus relations between the two countries would improve in the short run and also the way will be paved for better relations in the long run.