Since the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG), the United States (US) has repeatedly changed its policy regarding withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan and now contrary to its previous policy has deployed its military forces in the battlefield following the intensification of war between the Afghan security forces and the Taliban in Helmand and Kunduz provinces.
The US military strategy in Afghanistan, Washington’s unstable withdrawal policy and the impacts of US troops’ return to the battlefield on the Afghan government, peace and war are the issues that are analyzed here.
USA strategy for Afghanistan: During Bush and Obama administrations
In 2000, the republicans seized power in the US and White House was surrounded by the neo-conservatives. According to neo-conservatives, wherever USA interests are threatened it must conduct preemptive strikes to tackle the threat. Therefore, this strategic thinking also influenced George W. Bush’s Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns in 2001 and 2003 respectively.
Generally, the US’s strategy towards Afghanistan passed through three stages: first, to overthrow the Taliban regime and replace it with a new government. Later-on when the Taliban reinitiated their fight, the US, in the second stage, responded with increasing its troop’s level in the country. In the third stage, when the fatalities of US soldiers rose and the US war in Iraq and Afghanistan was criticized inside the United States; the US began its campaign to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2011.
Besides the withdrawal of troops, the US wanted to have military bases in Afghanistan which it achieved after inking the Bilateral Security Agreement with the newly-formed Afghan National Unity Government (NUG).
Obama’s unstable policy towards Afghanistan
After the escalation of war in the battlefield and intensification of insecurity in Afghanistan, George W. Bush changed his policy towards Afghanistan for the first time in 2006 and deployed extra troops to the country. At that time, Barack Obama was a Senator and he used to emphasize on the US war in Afghanistan rather than Iraq war; because he believed that the US was attacked from this region and the probability of attack on the states might also be from this region.
When Obama became the US President in 2008, he announced his plan to increase US troops level in Afghanistan and also announced the beginning of US troop’s withdrawal from Afghanistan after 2011.
Just after the formation of the NUG in 2014, the Afghan government signed Security Agreements with the US and NATO and accordance to which only 9800 US and 2000 NATO forces were supposed to remain in Afghanistan and in 2016 this number would have decreased to half. But this policy was postponed when the Afghan President and Chief Executive officer visited the US in March 2015 and Obama agreed to keep 9800 US soldiers in Afghanistan until 2015. Later-on in the backdrops of Kunduz fall, Obama changed its policy once again and stated that he would keep the 9800 US forces in Afghanistan to the end of 2016 and will decrease this number to 5500 in the first month of 2017. But later in July 2016, Obama announced that only 8400 soldiers would remain in Afghanistan by the end of 2016.
Reasons behind Obama’s unstable policy towards Afghanistan
Since the formation of the NUG, Barack Obama extended the timing of the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan several times. The followings are the reasons behind the change in Obama’s policy:
- Gaining the support of democrats; after 2006, the casualties of the US soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan increased and eventually people in the United States stood against the US war in Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2008, the democrats won the US Presidential elections with the slogan of ending the US war in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to a survey, 73% of democrats wanted the US troops to withdraw from Afghanistan as soon as possible[1].
- Pressurizing Karzai; in 2009, the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrook tried to intervene in the Afghan elections and later the US Ambassador’s email in which he had called Karzai a “non-adequate strategic partner” which was revealed by Wiki Leaks. The two events deeply impacted Kabul-Washington relations. After the deterioration of relations when Karzai refused to sign the BSA, the US wanted to use these announcements to pressurize Karzai.
- The Iraq experiment and fear of being blamed in the history; although Obama is known as the man who put an end to war in Iraq and reduced the number of US troops’ casualties in Afghanistan; but he is also criticized who left behind such Iraq in 2011 where civil war began and ISIS emerged and captured many areas. Obama may, therefore, be concerned about putting behind an Afghanistan under domination of militant groups or with a civil war erupted in it.
- Regional interest; Afghanistan is located between Russia and Central Asia, Iran, Pakistan and China and its geographic location is very valuable. Changes are taking place in this region since several years and on the one hand, the issue of US and Russia’s cold war is beginning to take shape again and the two countries are practically faced each other in Ukraine, Georgia and Syria; on the other hand, China has started its two significant projects- the New Silk Road and China-Pakistan Economic Zone. Besides that the US has borrowed more money from China than any other country and is also in the anti-China block in the issue of South China Sea.
- Division of attention in several regions and instability to set priorities; currently the US’s attention is divided in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria; on the one hand, because of Iraq, Syria and Iran it cannot let Russia open handed in the Middle East (after the failed coup d’état in Turkey, Ankara is also closing to Russia); on the other hand, it cannot shift its attention from Afghanistan at now when deep changes are occurring in this region.
The return of Americans to the battlefield and its impact on peace and war
Based on existing information, the US forces has entered the battlefield during the operations to recapture the Kunduz city; but later until the first month of 2016, the US’s role in the battlefield was far decreased. In February and April the western newspapers published reports that after 2014, the US soldiers have once again returned to Helmand province. [2]
On July 13 2016, The US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter visited Afghanistan and in a joint press conference with the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani he said that new authorities are given to the US forces in Afghanistan in order to fight against the Afghan Taliban. Before that the US soldiers had to conduct operations against the Taliban only if they were asked to do so but with the new authorities they will be able to conduct operations or airstrikes before the emergence of threat or as the threat is detected. [3]
The US deployed 100 troops in Helmand last week, in order to assist in the trainings of the Afghan forces; where one US soldier was killed and another injured in a roadside explosion
Although the return of US and NATO forces in the battlefield would support the Afghan government morally and as the government states it would “raise” the moral of security forces; but it would have bad impacts on war and peace in the country. Because the Taliban have released a statement about the return of US soldiers in Helmand which will give the fighters of the group reason and moral to fight.
The end
[1] Read PEW’s research here:
http://www.pewresearch.org/daily-number/majority-support-quick-troop-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
[2] Read the February report here: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/world/asia/us-troops-helmand-province-afghanistan.html?_r=0 and for April report see the Washington post’s report: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/us-troops-are-back-in-restive-afghan-province-a-year-after-withdrawal/2016/04/07/d3c6086a-fc19-11e5-813a-90ab563f0dde_story.html
[3] For further info see here:: http://1tvnews.af/en/news/afghanistan/23512-new-powers-let-us-forces-take-fight-to-taliban–carter