While in Iraq and Syria Daesh changed its name to “Islamic State”, there is a concern that this group may have higher desires beyond the territories of Iraq and Syria; because Daesh is the abbreviation for Islamic State of Iraq and Levant in Arabic language, and the name means that the activities of the group will be limited only to the two countries, Iraq and Levant, but by the declaration of its new policy, the group clarified the territory of its future activities much huger compared to the two countries, which is the entireMuslim World.
In the leading policy of the group, Abu Baker al Baghdadi introduced himself as the caliph of all the Muslims, and asked the entire Muslims Ummah to declare their allegiance to him as the Muslim Caliph. Asking for the allegiance means that the activities of the group may spread all over the Muslim World, from Morocco to Mindanao Islands in Philippine.
Islamic State:
The second most important region after the Western World, even more than some of the Western countries, that attracted the leaders of the mentioned group is Khorasan. The reason may be due to the old desire to revive the Caliphate of Muslims in the Subcontinent of India that raised after the failure of the Ottoman Empire. Therefore, while Al Baghdadi declared himself as the Caliph and asked the Muslims around the world to declare their allegiance to him, after the Arab World the first Muslims that accepted him as the Muslim Caliph were from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Many of them went to Syria, and a few months ago they started working on the establishment of the frontier of Khorasan.
After that some Central Asian militants also jointed them, and now it is said that Khorasan frontier is one of the powerful frontiers in Syria, and even the U.S. officials also called it as a dangerous frontier.
Khorasan:
The ancient Khorasan territory, during the first years of arise of Islam, was a territory that included all the territories of today’s Afghanistan and Tajikistan, some parts of Iran, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and the territories next to Durand Line. Currently the group has appointed a governor and deputy governor for the mentioned large area consisting of several countries, but yet they did not start military operations.
Ironically, the Khorasan plan of the group included the areas up to Atak River, which was separated from Afghanistan by Durand treaty. So, from the four states of Pakistan, three of them are not included in Khorasan, and the only one that is included in the Khorasan plan is the insecure state of Khyber Pashtonkhwa. In the formation of Khorasan Province, Hafiz Sayed Khan, who is from Orakzai Agency, is appointed as the governor, and Abdul Rauf Khadam, who is from Helmand Province, is appointed as the deputy of the governor of Khorasan.
Hafiz Sayed Khan is the former member of Pakistani Taliban, he and some other ones, including Shahidullah Shahid, separated from the Taliban. Abdul Rauf was earlier the member of military commission of the Taliban. The Spokesman of IS Abu Mohammad al Adnani accepted the mentioned appointments.
Can the Taliban be Split?
To the extent the issue is related to the Pakistani Taliban, the group is already split into smaller groups, and while there is, something said about the Pakistani Taliban its aim is the group that is led by Mullah Fazlullah. So split among them is not something strange.
But regarding the Afghan Taliban, we can say that the rise of Daesh in the region may be challenging. But Abdul Rauf Khadam’s influence among the Taliban is so weak, and even earlier he was not accepted by the Afghan Taliban and they called him as Salafi. But for showing their breadth that they have tolerance of interpretation of religion, and also for attracting the trust of Arabs that support the Taliban, so they appointed him as the member of the military committee of the Taliban. Due to the relations with Arab fighters, including Al Qaida and non-Al Qaida members, Abdul Rauf got the opportunity of relations with Islamic State, especially he is entitled as a person with Salafi ideas, who has also worked with the Afghan Taliban, so the leadership of IS chosen him as the deputy governor of Khorasan.
Attempts of IS for its Influence in Afghanistan:
Recently there are rumors heard about the existence of IS members in some parts of Afghanistan. According to governmental officials there are reports published that say that IS members are increasing in some provinces like: Helmand, Farah, Ghazni, Zabul, and even Kunduz province which is one of the southern provinces of the country.
People speak of the immediate existence of IS, and their reason is that these fighters are different from the Taliban, and they bring black flags. In some cases, these reports might be true; but in some cases, especially the ones in which the governmental officials exaggerate, it might be a reflection. Isn’t the aim of the publishing such news the cause of concerning the U.S. and other countries about the future of Afghanistan, so they will renew their idea about withdrawal of their forces from Afghanistan?
In some cases, the existence of foreign fighters in some parts of the country are not relevant to the IS. For example, Dai Chopan District of Ghazni Province is the place where Uzbek Fighters, who are related to Tahir Yeldash group, live there since 2006, and these fighters were there many years earlier than the establishment of IS and fighting with the Pakistani Taliban, who had agreement with the Pakistani Government.
If the IS members want to influence such groups, it would be easy for them, but influence in the Taliban group is not easy, and there is the possibility of armed conflict among them; because the Taliban do not allow any group to have direct military activities in the territories that are under the control of the Taliban.
The Difference of the Taliban and the Islamic State:
The difference between the two groups is the difference in their political plans. The Taliban declared that they do not have the plan of leaving Afghanistan and their goal is freedom of Afghanistan from the U.S. and its alliances. While the foreign forces leave Afghanistan, there is no reason of war in the country.
But the goal of the IS is expansion of the territory of the group to all the Muslim World, and they feel themselves obliged for the mentioned goal. So the goal of the foreign armed groups, who were earlier the alliance of the Taliban, is war in their own countries, the message of IS may include traction and attraction.
Result:
The overall result that we can get from these revolutions are that even the weakness of the Taliban in the country does not mean the strength of the government. Even the Taliban get weaker and weaker, another group that is much more extremism may start its activities even abroad the boundaries of Afghanistan, especially in the Central Asia. Therefore, Abdul Karim Khuram the Head of Office of Former President Hamid Karzai said that it is a conspiracy of the U.S., and he predicted in his article that the war may spread to the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, especially to the borders of China, and for the implementation of the plan it is necessity to change Afghanistan to a “Big Waziristan.
The End