Border tensions with Pakistan and Afghan elections
Pakistan cross-border rocket attacks on Kunar are still going on, Afghan authorities considered the Pakistani attacks aim to challenge the second round presidential election.
But Pakistanis had a different analysis from these attacks, the Pakistani media reported according to the military officials of Pakistan that a vast attack from Afghan border has targeted a Pakistani check post in Bajaur Agency and killed a Pakistani police, after that the Pakistani soldiers reacted and targeted the attackers. The gunships helicopters were also accompanying the operation. After some days the Pakistani officials announced that four Pakistani soldiers have been killed and if the attacks do not stop they will increase the rocket attacks on Afghan soil.
Afghanistan’s foreign ministry in a latest reaction said: these attacks are a clear aggression on Afghanistan and for defending it they mulled over military options. But Syed Ibrar Husain, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Kabul claimed these incidents are in response to acts of aggression and militants coming from the Afghan soil.
He claimed that Afghanistan does not have any check post in the center of Kunar and while the Pakistani soldiers come under attack they are reacting and targets these areas, while the Afghan Interior Ministry rejects these claims and say that in the border areas Afghan Border Police (ABP) are on duty.
Was the real aim of rocket attacks to challenge elections? The three years old background of the border conflicts shows that the attacks were not exactly related to the elections, the Defense Minister also not rejected the presumably attacks of unknown militants from the Afghan side of the border.
Failure of peace talks in Pakistan
The rocket attacks before Afghan elections can be related mostly to the failure of peace negotiation with Taliban in Pakistan. In the fact after victory of Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf of Imran Khan in Pakistani election the peace negotiation began with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Hakimullah Mehsud has been killed during the negotiations by a US drone attack.
Later Mullah Fazlullah has been chosen as the leader of TTP who now lives in the tribal area between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Khan Sayed Sajna known as Khalid Mehsud was another candidate for the leadership, but his will for peace with Pakistani government caused that the high level members of TTP voted for Fazlullah to become the leader.
Following the failure of peace talks between Pakistani government and TTP, the Pakistan Army launched operation in North Waziristan. The aim of this operation is said to bringing peace to Pakistan but the fact is that Pakistani intelligence wanted to create a new leadership in Taliban by Sajna and then enter to peace negotiation with them.
Pakistan’s fear from Indian influence
As the insecurity and instability in Afghanistan is being linked with Pakistani intelligence, the insurgency in Pakistan by Baloch or Taliban is claimed to be linked with Indian intelligence and implemented by Afghanistan.
Pakistan Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) wants to deepen the rule of the Taliban in Waziristan who have understanding with the government; besides, are more concerned about the Taliban leadership command located outside the Pakistan, especially while the Fazlullah is already suspicious that during his existence in Swat he had relations with some foreign parties and even ran an FM radio station.
After failure of peace negotiation and during the preparation of Pakistan Army for military operation in North Waziristan, Taliban stormed the Karachi International Airport with a well-planned attack. This attack challenged Pakistan’s discipline forces. However it was said that the aircrafts and the passengers were not harmed but the image and prestige of Pakistani government was affected globally.
In another incident one of the aircrafts of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) was attacked while landing in the Peshawar International Airport showing that Taliban can harm the Pakistan’s economy.
Pakistani officials first claimed India’s involvement in the attacks, and after sometime it was said that the attackers were Uzbek from Uzbekistan Islamic Movement. In a recent incident Pakistan, without any document, claimed that Afghanistan National Directorate of Security (NDS) involvement in the attack. It shows the ISI’s attempts to show the attackers from outside the Pakistan.
Unheeding of foreign troops in Afghanistan
The foreign troops in Afghanistan stayed neutral against the rocket attacks from over the Pakistan border. US Ambassador to Kabul said that US troops will not have any military interventions in tensions between Afghanistan and its neighbor. Meanwhile, supporters of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) were arguing that Afghanistan will be protected from neighbor’s intervention by signing the BSA.
Conclusion:
The fact is that Pakistan ISI does not tolerate the leadership of Taliban outside the Pakistan because they are concerned of foreign, especially Indian influence, on Taliban and therefore the attacks can be a pressure on the Afghan government to eventually expel Mullah Fazlullah from Kunar, however Pakistan has been trying this itself too.
ISI assigned agents within Afghanistan to find the exact location of TTP leaders including Mullah Fazlullah. Pakistani Taliban found this after drone attacks targeted Afghan Taliban and some close militants to Mullah Fazlullah were killed. Considering the preciseness of the attacks, TTP and Afghan Taliban understood that these attacks are impossible without inner intelligence. In the result they sent a group of veiled militants to identify and execute alleged agents. The group hanged a number of militants who were considered to be spying.
In conclusion, we can say that there are numerous reasons behind Pakistani cross-border attacks on Afghan border areas which Pakistan prefers not to reveal. Afghanistan, also not preferring to admit Pakistan’s armed opposition presence in its soil, wants to link these attacks with disturbing Afghan election process by Pakistan. It is clear that attacks on Kunar border areas could not result in preventing people from participation in elections even in Kunar let alone the process in entire country.