Summarized background:
The Independent Election Commission IEC has announced the primary results of the April 5th presidential election, in which no one of the candidates gained the 50+1 votes to win the election. Dr. Abdullah Abdullah’s 44.9 % of the votes and Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai’s 32.5% have attracted amongst the 8 presidential candidates.
However the final results might change after consideration of the complaints and it will be announced by 28th May, but it seems that the complaints commission might not make a decision which can prevent the election from going to the second round.
But if the election goes to the second round, which challenges and problems will raise in the second round? The board of weekly analysis in CSRS has analyzed this issue:
Run-off and speculation of a Coalition government:
First of all the concerns which existed before the elections regarding the frauds and interventions became true, and it cleared once again that until the ongoing war does not end, possibility of free and fair elections seems far.
Since the election despite of the frauds and interventions did not gave a result in the first round, before the second round some speculations has spread regarding a coalition government; but maybe one of the candidates does not accept the coalition government and call for the second round election; and if against the laws in Afghanistan, an coalition government is made, it might be wrong measure and the upcoming government will act as commercial company as it was in the past several years and the candidate who withdraws from the election might have a particular share in the government.
The challenges and concerns against the second round:
The second round of election might widely face different security and economic problems and since the provincial council’s election was also held along with presidential election and there were different candidates, people’s participation was wide but while the second round is being held without such incentive factors, the level of participation in the second round of the election might be lower.
But the big concern in the second round is the fear of ethnic division of the people as a result of the policies of some candidates. Because there are just two candidates in the second round, they might take some measures for attracting more votes, so it might cause some prejudice within the Afghan society.
In most countries this fear is eliminated by political parties which consist of citizens from all around the country; but Afghan society has faced such problems in its past history and there is a kind of anxiety regarding this matter.
If the two candidates with more votes consider this issue serious, they would not let the society to get divided on the basis of ethnic values which indeed might have serious outcomes for the country.
If either of the candidates succeeds with disputed ethnic based votes, he will face various challenges in the future, and the part of the society who has not voted to that specific candidate will not consider him as their leader and the government will be considered as the government of a particular party, While the election does not mean that the elected president only belongs to those who cast their votes for him, and those who did not voted him should be neglected in the governmental policies.
Besides that, security concerns also challenges the second round and a large number of Afghans will give sacrifice again, while the elections have become a game in the hands of the ruling government and the votes of those who votes in price of their lives, gets worthless.
after experiencing the first round election, vast frauds and interventions from foreigners are expected in the second round; because, in the first round it was much predictable that the election will go to the second round, therefore foreigners did not intervene much and did not take it serious, but in the second round, the rivals are clear so supporting parties will try their best by any possible way to make their candidate succeed.
As a conclusion, the first round of the election faced variety of problems, and there are concerns of more serious problems in the second round. The candidates must respect the law for achieving the power, and do not gain the power through betraying the nation.