Introduction
The third Afghan presidential and provincial councils’ election will be held on 5th April 2014.
Frauds and security concerns are widely existed before the upcoming election. Meanwhile, Taliban warned election, in their latest press release said that they will target the staff of election commission.
US officials also expressed their concerns over the deteriorating situation of security in Afghanistan. General Martin Dempsey, the US chief of staff after visiting Kabul a few days back told in Washington that Afghanistan will face negative incidents and instability after this election.
How will be conducted this election and where will lead the current situation? Whether the election will have impact on the crisis in Afghanistan or will be worsen the problems?
The Election
Dr. Abdul Baqi Amin director of CSRS in reply to the questions of media and press department of CSRS analyzed this issue and views that the major challenge in front of this election is the lack of security; therefore the election in such circumstances will not be feasible.
Mr. Amin adds: Now the Afghan government has not control of the most regions of Afghanistan and the commitment of the Internal Affairs ministry (MoIA) that they will guarantee the safeguard of the voting sites is demagogical, in Wardak province for instance the electoral sites pretended open, but in fact voting in six districts of this province is impossible, while in southern, western and southwest provinces the situation is same, now it is important that how will be the voting crates fill with?
He maintained: “Even if the government guarantee the safety of the voting sites and protect the boxes from losing, which will protect the voters who return from the centers after casting their votes? The statements of the governmental officials in this regard are not true that there is no security challenge against election, the reality on the ground is opposite of their remarks.”
Political analyst, Zakir Jalaly also believes that the very need of election in democratic counties is giving power to a legitimate and people’s choice government and transition of authority from one person to another in a peaceful way. The first need of election is the participation of the most qualified population of the country and the guarantee that these votes really elect the coming president, it means that transparency is the important condition of the election.
He adds further: “Firstly, there is no security in Afghanistan that the qualified people can participate. Secondly, the nation about the government and foreign presence is not sure that their votes will be the real electors. Thirdly, in spite of the insecurity and the foreign interferences the government is not committed to leave the people for their choice to elect the government, in such a context the hope of coming to the power of a government with loyalty seems just optimism.
The legitimacy of the next president:
Mr. Jalaly believes that “A president with more legitimacy than president Karzai seems unlikely. The security situation is worse than during the previous election it was, and the commitment of Americans seems suspicious and also the warnings of Taliban is serious challenges, so I think that a better government than that of current is not possible. There is another point that the Americans also know that a powerful and legitimate president than the Karzai is unlikely to come to power, therefore they were insisting on the signing of the Security pact before this election. If the coming government is more legitimate than the current is, why would Americans insist to sign the pact with current government?”
The likeliness of the second round and interferences:
According to Mr. Jalaly “now this is obvious that the election will go to the second round and this will be the result of plurality candidates. If we have a general look to the candidates we can find them in three categories; first the candidate of the opposition, second from the current government and third category is the independent candidates who have inclinations towards government nominees. Therefore, I think the election will go to second round, where the competition between opposition and governmental supporting candidates. The candidate of the opposition warns of instability, but it seems that they aim to alarm the government to not interfere, however there is not the possibility of a specific crisis.”
But this is clear that, holding transparent election in current situation of Afghanistan is unlikely to happen; and the main cause of that is the foreign existence, that challenges the legitimacy of the election. To be more realistic than optimistic each country seeks its own interests, and so are the security forces prioritizing their interests.
The impact of the election on the peace and stability:
Whether this election will help Afghanistan overcome on the current crisis or will widen the crisis Mr. Jalaly believes: “never can terminate the problems; the armed opposition who almost are Taliban in their latest press release called on the nation to not participate the election. I also think that the coming president cannot do more than Karzai did. Because the coming president will be less legitimate and maybe he will sign the security pact with America, which will mean closing of the doors against peace process.
Mr. Abdul Baqi Amin does not think that the election will bring the main problem of Afghanistan which is war. He adds that Afghanistan needs in the current situation to address the root factors of war, but it seems the wars will get warmed after the election and the security situation will get deteriorate.