{"id":5954,"date":"2025-05-01T06:37:24","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T06:37:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/csrsaf.org\/en\/?p=5954"},"modified":"2026-01-17T10:56:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-17T10:56:10","slug":"tensions-between-india-and-pakistan-and-their-impact-on-afghanistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csrsaf.org\/en\/?p=5954","title":{"rendered":"Tensions between India and Pakistan and Their Impact on Afghanistan"},"content":{"rendered":"

By: Assoc. Prof. Abdul Saboor Mubariz<\/strong><\/p>\r\n

Note:\u00a0<\/strong>Click\u00a0here<\/a><\/strong> for the PDF file of this analysis.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

___________________________________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In this issue:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n

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  1. \r\n
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    1. Tensions between India and Pakistan and Their Impact on Afghanistan<\/li>\r\n
    2. The Pahalgam Incident and Its Impact on India-Pakistan Bilateral Relations<\/li>\r\n
    3. Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty<\/li>\r\n
    4. Will India Attack Pakistan?<\/li>\r\n
    5. Impacts of the Conflict on Afghanistan<\/li>\r\n
    6. Conclusion<\/li>\r\n
    7. Recommendations<\/li>\r\n
    8. Recommendations<\/li>\r\n
    9. References<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n

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      Introduction<\/h2>\r\n

      Introduction<\/strong> Since the formation of India and Pakistan, the two countries have engaged in several wars. The first war occurred in 1948 over the Kashmir region and ended with a ceasefire and the establishment of the Line of Control (LOC). The second war broke out in 1965, again over Kashmir, and lasted for 17 days. It ended through mediation by the Soviet Union and the United States. Another major conflict occurred in 1971, known as the Bangladesh Liberation War. This war concluded with the signing of the Simla Agreement and resulted in India capturing 90,000 Pakistani soldiers. The next significant confrontation was the Kargil War in 1999, which started after Pakistani troops infiltrated the Kargil region. Apart from these wars, several other clashes and attacks have further fueled tensions between the two nations. These include the Siachen conflict, the 2001 Indian Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, the Indian military strike in Uri in 2016, and the Pulwama attack in 2019, which targeted Indian security forces and resulted in many casualties. In response to the Pulwama incident, India carried out an airstrike on Balakot in Pakistan. [1]<\/a> All of these incidents have significantly deepened the rivalry and mistrust between India and Pakistan. The most recent event occurred on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, a town in Indian-administered Kashmir, where armed individuals attacked a group of tourists, killing around 26 people. India blamed Pakistan for the attack, though Pakistan denied any involvement. While Kashmiri resistance groups claimed responsibility, India maintains that Pakistan provides financial and logistical support to these groups. [2]<\/a> This is not the first-time tourists in Pahalgam have been targeted. On January 4, 1995, six foreign tourists were kidnapped from the same area\u2014two Americans, two Britons, one German, and one Norwegian. A group called “Al-Faran” claimed responsibility and demanded the release of Maulana Masood Azhar, leader of the militant group Harkat-ul-Ansar. Four days later, one of the American hostages escaped. Weeks later, the beheaded body of the Norwegian tourist was found, with the name “Al-Faran” inscribed on his chest. To this day, the fate of the remaining four hostages remains unknown, though reports suggest they were all killed. [3]<\/a><\/p>\r\n

      <\/a>The Pahalgam Incident and Its Impact on India-Pakistan Bilateral Relations<\/h2>\r\n

      As mentioned in the introduction, India and Pakistan have historically been nuclear-armed rivals in South Asia. Occasionally, tensions flare up between the two countries, often escalating their already-strained relationship. In recent years, however, India\u2019s economic progress and Pakistan\u2019s relative economic stagnation have shifted the balance of power in India\u2019s favor. Currently, India is the fifth-largest economy in the world, and its economic output is ten times that of Pakistan. Regarding military capability, India is the second-largest arms importer globally (after Ukraine), while Pakistan ranks fifth. [4]<\/a> After the border clash between India and China in the Himalayan region in 2020, India shifted much of its strategic focus away from Pakistan and towards managing tensions with China. This included efforts to either ease disagreements or apply political and economic pressure on China. As a result, India-Pakistan relations remained relatively quiet for a while. However, the recent events in Pahalgam have once again brought these relations to a critical point, even raising concerns about the possibility of direct military conflict. On April 25, Indian officials reported that troops from both sides had exchanged gunfire along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, marking a dangerous escalation. In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faced mounting pressure from the public, with many demanding strong actions against Pakistan. Modi responded by taking the following measures:<\/p>\r\n